Preseason Rankings
UC Irvine
Big West
2019-20
Overall
Predictive Rating+4.0#106
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace64.8#287
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+1.2#133
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+2.8#94
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.6% 1.0% 0.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 39.1% 44.1% 33.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.0% 1.7% 0.3%
Average Seed 13.2 12.8 13.8
.500 or above 88.0% 93.8% 81.0%
.500 or above in Conference 95.2% 96.8% 93.1%
Conference Champion 52.5% 58.2% 45.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.3% 0.6%
First Four1.7% 1.4% 2.0%
First Round38.4% 43.5% 32.2%
Second Round7.0% 9.1% 4.4%
Sweet Sixteen1.9% 2.5% 1.1%
Elite Eight0.4% 0.6% 0.3%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: San Diego (Away) - 54.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 22 - 4
Quad 35 - 47 - 8
Quad 414 - 221 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 164   @ San Diego W 66-65 55%    
  Nov 09, 2019 117   @ Pepperdine L 73-75 41%    
  Nov 15, 2019 90   @ Boise St. L 66-70 35%    
  Nov 18, 2019 40   @ Colorado L 63-73 18%    
  Nov 21, 2019 68   @ TCU L 66-73 27%    
  Nov 24, 2019 219   Detroit Mercy W 78-71 74%    
  Nov 26, 2019 202   Louisiana W 78-71 72%    
  Nov 30, 2019 222   Eastern Michigan W 67-57 82%    
  Dec 07, 2019 228   California Baptist W 77-66 83%    
  Dec 16, 2019 129   Kent St. W 71-69 58%    
  Dec 20, 2019 131   @ Illinois-Chicago L 71-72 48%    
  Dec 28, 2019 247   Pacific W 71-59 84%    
  Jan 04, 2020 69   @ Harvard L 65-72 28%    
  Jan 11, 2020 183   Hawaii W 71-62 78%    
  Jan 15, 2020 213   @ Cal St. Fullerton W 72-68 64%    
  Jan 18, 2020 296   UC Riverside W 71-56 89%    
  Jan 22, 2020 289   @ Long Beach St. W 77-69 76%    
  Jan 25, 2020 327   Cal Poly W 76-59 93%    
  Jan 30, 2020 266   @ UC Davis W 68-61 72%    
  Feb 01, 2020 213   Cal St. Fullerton W 75-65 80%    
  Feb 06, 2020 266   UC Davis W 71-58 86%    
  Feb 08, 2020 160   @ UC Santa Barbara W 67-66 52%    
  Feb 12, 2020 296   @ UC Riverside W 68-59 76%    
  Feb 16, 2020 183   @ Hawaii W 68-65 58%    
  Feb 19, 2020 289   Long Beach St. W 80-66 88%    
  Feb 22, 2020 208   @ Cal St. Northridge W 77-73 63%    
  Feb 27, 2020 327   @ Cal Poly W 73-62 83%    
  Feb 29, 2020 160   UC Santa Barbara W 70-63 72%    
  Mar 04, 2020 208   Cal St. Northridge W 80-70 79%    
Projected Record 19 - 10 12 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.0 6.7 12.2 14.7 11.1 5.5 52.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.5 6.5 7.3 4.0 0.9 21.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 2.2 4.6 3.3 1.0 0.1 11.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.5 2.8 1.6 0.2 0.0 6.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.0 0.9 0.1 4.2 5th
6th 0.1 0.6 1.0 0.5 0.0 2.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 9th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.4 2.5 4.2 6.3 9.2 12.0 14.9 16.2 15.5 11.1 5.5 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 5.5    5.5
15-1 100.0% 11.1    10.8 0.3
14-2 94.5% 14.7    12.5 2.2 0.0
13-3 75.3% 12.2    8.2 3.7 0.4 0.0
12-4 44.6% 6.7    3.0 3.0 0.7 0.0
11-5 16.5% 2.0    0.4 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0
10-6 2.9% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 52.5% 52.5 40.3 10.3 1.7 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 5.5% 79.1% 74.6% 4.5% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.7 1.1 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.2 17.7%
15-1 11.1% 65.5% 63.1% 2.4% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.9 2.5 2.1 1.0 0.3 0.0 3.8 6.6%
14-2 15.5% 55.2% 54.4% 0.7% 13.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 2.2 3.1 2.0 0.7 0.1 7.0 1.6%
13-3 16.2% 43.6% 43.6% 0.1% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.3 2.2 1.3 0.3 9.2 0.1%
12-4 14.9% 34.2% 34.2% 14.1 0.0 0.4 1.0 1.8 1.4 0.5 9.8
11-5 12.0% 25.6% 25.6% 14.6 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.3 0.6 9.0
10-6 9.2% 19.0% 19.0% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.6 7.5
9-7 6.3% 15.8% 15.8% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 5.3
8-8 4.2% 12.9% 12.9% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 3.7
7-9 2.5% 8.0% 8.0% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.3
6-10 1.4% 6.0% 6.0% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.3
5-11 0.7% 3.5% 3.5% 16.0 0.0 0.6
4-12 0.2% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.0 0.2
3-13 0.1% 0.1
2-14 0.1% 0.1
1-15 0.0% 0.0
0-16
Total 100% 39.1% 38.5% 0.6% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.7 2.1 7.1 9.7 8.6 6.2 3.2 60.9 1.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 4.3 0.7 1.5 13.4 45.5 35.1 1.5 1.5 0.7